Puell Multiple


The Puell Multiple is an oscillator representing the ratio between current daily mining rewards (denominated in USD) and its rolling 1-year average. Proof-of-Work miners are long term investors in the Bitcoin protocol and thus their yearly average income is a reasonable baseline for estimating profitability. Miner income stress leads to deleveraging of weak miners who ultimately lose hash-power share to stronger miners with more robust operations This phase can be identified by historically low Puell Multiple fractals. Conversely, high Puell Multiple fractals suggest periods of extreme profitability relative to the long term average and thus increased incentive for miners to liquidate treasuries and add sell pressure. Pricing bands for the oscillator show key levels established from historical occurence, with probabilities representing the chance of Puell Multiple continuing to trend high/lower than the current level.